Extended Weather Forecasts

Extended Weather Forecasts with a focus on the West Coast mountain winter weather outlook 2018-2019 – how will this season’s slopes shape up? While some places may see more snow than others, all of the Pacific Northwest on average will see seasonally dry and warm weather.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is projecting warmer temperatures for California and Oregon than Washington, although the Green Tree State is also expected to be a little warmer than average. Drier weather will be seen across the Pacific Northwest, especially east of the West Cascades. Slightly more precipitation than normal in extreme southern California is suggested on Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society’s October-December forecast. The Sierra Nevada region in California has a slightly more promising long-term outlook than the Washington Cascades, with projections closer to neutral, meaning closer to a quintessential Californian autumn. The forecast may not be a good omen for thick mountain snowpack but the added warmth may be a silver lining for hikers.

Extended Weather Forecasts for January-March are more promising for skiing in the Pacific Northwest. The dryness west of the West Cascades and over California is modeled to end. Well above average temperatures for the Pacific Northwest are expected by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), with somewhat above average temperatures for California. That means normal precipitation totals and some of winter’s bite removed. The IRI’s forecast separates from the CPC’s in that it describes a slightly drier than average California and southern Oregon.

The pattern seen this winter relates to a typical wintertime El Niño, which couples with an already established CPC El Niño Watch – a 65-70% chance. The prominent changes that loosely predictably align with the ENSO oscillation will be present. Having said that, the recent precipitation whiplash seen in the west is popularly being theoretically tied to a contemporary exaggeration of the earthly cycle. 

Extended weather forecasts for the East Coast? Many experts are suggesting below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the Northeast.

Extended Weather Forecasts- How much snow in the mountains

Are the Fires Gone Yet?

Thankfully, as of the past several weeks, the threat of forest fires in the West and Pacific Northwest has largely subsided. Autumn’s typical warm, dry offshore winds, however, may work to prolong the effective ending of wildfire season. [Current wildfires map.] It appears Fall 2018 will host that pattern not just over California but also farther north than typically seen in autumn.

Written by Meteorologist Geoff  Linsley